"The problem occurs when they get back to the station. They hate to do the paperwork, and because they dislike it, the job is frequently put off or done inadequately. This lack of attention hurts us later on when we get to court. We need clear, factual reports. They must be highly detailed and unambiguous. As soon as one part of a report is shown to be inadequate or incorrect, the rest of the report is suspect. Poor reporting probably causes us to lose more cases than any other factor.
"So I just don't know what to do. I've been groping in the dark in a number of years. And I hope that this seminar will shed some light on this problem of mine and help me out in my future work."
A large metropolitan city government was putting on a number of seminars for administrators, managers and/or executives of various departments throughout the city. At one of these sessions the topic to be discussed was motivation-how we can get public servants motivated to do a good job. The difficulty of a police captain became the central focus of the discussion.
Order:
G ______41 ______42 ______43 ______44 ______45 ______ F
41.C 42.E 43.A 44.B 45.D
二. 实战演习：
1. Exercise (本文中心是预测未来)
Directions:
The following paragraphs are given in a wrong order. For Questions 41-45, you are required to reorganize these paragraphs into a coherent article by choosing from the list A-G to fill in each numbered box. The first and the last paragraphs have been placed for you in Boxes. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.(10 points)
.Over the years, societies have developed various ways to try to divine the future. Some groups attempted to acquire insight into events through magic or contact with the supernatural.
To do this, they might have read portents in the entrails of animals or in tea leaves. In ancient Rome, generals used these methods to calculate their likely success in upcoming battles. Reliance on patterns of stars as a means of predicting personal futures also developed early on.
Although this is the most conservative approach to using history to predict the future, it is often the most accurate. However, each of these attempts to use history as a basis for predicting the future is inherently flawed. Therefore, they do not provide entirely accurate descriptions of the future. Perhaps this is why some people continue to prefer fortune-tellers and astrological charts to predictions based on historical events.
. Well before the considerable decline of beliefs in magic by the 18th century, however, human societies had also developed ways to think about the future in clearer relation to historical time.
That is, they became aware that their societies had pasts, and they tried to relate those pasts to the
future. Most of the forecasts we deal with today, such as those that inform military or business policy, actively use history because the forecasters assume a connection among past, present, and future events. As we will see, the types of connections on which predictions are based, as well as the success rate of those predictions, vary hugely. However, the need to assess predictions applies regardless.
. Three major types of predictive modes, or history-to-future thinking, exist. The first mode to arise, and one that is still widely used today, is based on assumptions about the recurrence of historical events and patterns. Analysts who employ this predictive mode assume that certain types of past developments will happen again, and that by understanding history, they can better handle future recurrences. This thinking lies behind the familiar phrase, “Those who do not know the past are condemned to repeat it.” The second predictive mode to develop, and by far the most dramatic, involves assumptions about a phenomenon called historical disruption. In this mode, prediction highlights the belief that some force is about to radically change the course of history, and therefore, the future. The third predictive mode, not necessarily the newest but certainly the one developed most systematically during the past century, involves looking to recent history for the trends that are likely to continue in the future.
