79 Population Growth

The growth of population during the past few centuries is no proof that population will continue to grow straight upward toward infinity and doom. On the contrary, demographic history offers evidence that population growth has not been at all constant. According to paleoecologist Edward Deevey, the past million years show three momentous changes. The first, a rapid increase in population around one m illion B. C., followed the innovations of tool making and tool using. But when the new power from the use of tools has been exploited, the rate of world population growth fell and became almost stable. The next rapid jump in population started perhaps 10,000 years ago, when mankind began to keep herds, plow and plant the earth. Once again when initial productivity gains had been absorbed, the rate of population growth abated. These two episodes suggest that the third great change, the present rapid growth, which began in the West between 250 and 350 years ago, may also slow down when, or if, technology begins to yield fewer innovations. Of course, the current knowledge revolution may continue without foreseeable end. Either way - contrary to popular belief in constant geometric growth - population can be expected in the long run to adjust to productivity. And when one takes this view, population growth is seen to represent economic progress and human triumph rather than social failure.

人口增长

以往几个世纪人口的增长并不能证明人口会无限地直线向上增长直到毁灭的地步。 相反地，人口统计史料证明人口的增长完全不是稳定的。 古生态学家爱德华·狄维认为，在过去100万年间出现过3次重大的变动。 第一次在公元前100万年左右，随着在工具的制作和使用上的革新而出现人口迅速增长。 但当工具的使用所产生的新动力被充分利用以后，世界人口增长率下降并且趋于稳定。 第二次人口剧增大约始于人类开始蓄畜、垦耕的10，000年前。 一旦最初的生产力增长被吸收殆尽，人口的增长再次衰落。 以上两段说明，若技术革新的成果开始减少，从250到350年前就在西方开始出现的并且目前还在继续的人口迅速增长可能也会放慢。 当然，当前的知识革命也许会持续下去而无法预见其末来。 无论如何，与那种认为人口以几何级数持续增长的观点相反，从长远的观点来说，人口可望受到生产力的调节。 接受了这一观点，人口的增长就可以被看成是经济进步和人类胜利的标志，而不是社会衰败的标志。