Asustek Storms Global Computer Mkt |
| 在电脑厂商宏碁(Acer)最近因一项大手笔收购交易而赢得世界瞩目之时，另一家台湾公司也在悄然酝酿一场足以席卷全球个人电脑市场的风暴。 华硕电脑有限公司(Asustek Computer Inc.)长期以来都是电脑世界的幕后英雄。它不仅是全球最大的主板生产商，也是最大的电脑合同生产商之一，为苹果(Apple)及索尼(Sony)等品牌生产高端笔记本电脑。 如今，华硕电脑正在不断提升自有品牌电脑华硕(Asus)的销量，计划将公司最终分为三个独立的上市公司，并以此重燃投资者的热情。 华硕电脑誓言要在接下来的三年中跻身全球五大笔记本电脑品牌之列。据调查研究公司IDC的数据，事实上，华硕品牌电脑在全球范围内的销量几乎可与苹果相媲美，而且它在亚太地区笔记本电脑市场的占有率也在8%左右。一些分析人士认为，华硕和斥资7.1亿美元收购美国公司Gateway的宏碁有相似之处。这笔交易将使宏碁将取代中国的联想集团(Lenovo Group)成为全球第三大电脑公司，仅次于惠普(Hewlett-Packard)及戴尔(Dell)。 花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)的分析师杨应超(Kirk Yang)说，现在的华硕就是五年前的宏碁，它是我们在亚洲科技类公司中的首选。 华硕周三收于新台币96.60元（约合2.92美元），该股今年已上涨14%。而宏碁同期则下跌了16%。花旗认为，华硕基于2007年预期收益的市盈率约为15倍，略高于宏碁，但略低于同为台湾顶尖合同生产商的鸿海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry)。 但一些分析师认为华硕电脑的股价仍有上涨空间。杨应超就给予华硕股票“买入”评级，未来12个月的目标价为新台币130元。UBS Investment Research也给予华硕“买入”评级，未来12个月目标价为新台币118元。荷兰银行(ABN Amro)预测的目标价则为新台币115元。
不过也有部分分析师认为华硕的股价涨幅太大。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)分析师高库尔•哈里哈兰(Gokul Hariharan)预测华硕的目标价为新台币88元，股票评级为“减持”。他表示，华硕股票经过今夏的上涨后价值已被扭曲。 哈里哈兰认为华硕的个人电脑合同制造业务被高估。他表示，华硕的合同制造业务规模小于竞争对手，而且这是个竞争非常激烈的行业，业内成员都是在价格上作文章，进而会影响到华硕的盈利能力。 另有一些基金经理提醒称，有可能出现的美国经济衰退也会威胁到整个台湾高科技行业。 伦敦Pictet Asset Management的分析师尼迪•玛赫卡(Nidhi Mahurkar)表示，市场对高科技股的态度已有些谨慎。不过她表示自己仍看好华硕。玛赫卡称，虽然随着新兴市场的崛起，高科技行业对美国的依赖在减少，但美国仍然是这个行业最大的单一末段市场。 据国际数据公司(IDC)称，华硕在美国笔记本电脑市场的占有率很小，在总出货量中只占大概0.2%。不过很多用该公司显卡和主板等元器件组装的电脑都销往美国，因此美国市场对该公司收入的贡献率依然可观。 像华硕和宏碁这类公司崛起，反映出亚洲公司在全球个人电脑业的影响力随着行业整合大行其道而增强。就在宏碁宣布收购Gateway的两年前，联想集团吞并了国际商业机器公司(IBM)的个人电脑业务， 台湾和大陆公司拥有两大优势，其一是靠近整个供应链，例如全球绝大多数笔记本电脑是由台湾公司设于大陆的工厂制造；其二是与供应商建立了密切关系，因此得以迅速地交货和提升利润。 虽然台湾背景所带来的成本优势让华硕受益，但它并不是一家走廉价路线的公司。 外界认为宏碁是靠与戴尔和惠普等竞争对手打价格战来迅速抢占市场的。 然而华硕品牌却走的是高档路线，其对手是苹果公司(Apple Inc.)和索尼公司(Sony Corp.)，而后两者都是以设计见长。通过百思买(Best Buy Co.)之类的零售店贩卖产品，华硕正在逐步打开美国市场。其部分产品的价格虽然比苹果和索尼便宜，但要比笔记本电脑的平均售价高出一到两成。 分析师称，华硕在笔记本电脑市场的扩张导致它与几家主要客户出现摩擦，华硕已被这些客户视为直接竞争对手。随着华硕笔记本电脑的销量不断增长，苹果和索尼相继将订单转交给了鸿海精密和广达电脑(Quanta Computer Inc.)等台湾合同制造商。为了缓和与客户的紧张关系并减少自有品牌业务与合同制造业务之间暴露出来的利益冲突，华硕最近宣布了一项重组计划。 根据计划，华硕要一分为三。其中华硕电脑继续经营包括笔记本、台式机和主板在内的自有品牌业务。然后成立一家名为和硕联合科技公司(Pegatron Technology Corp.)的企业负责原来的合同生产业务。而非电脑配件的制造业务则交给另一家新公司──永硕联合科技公司(Unihan Technology Corp.)打理。 若重组计划获得监管部门批准，将会在明年生效。而宏基为了将自有品牌业务与合同制造业务分离，几年前也曾进行过类似的调整。 由于华硕仍将持有两家新公司的绝大多数股份，因此重组刚开始对投资者的影响将微乎其微。随着时间的推移，华硕将减持至少三成股份，以便于新公司进行首次公开募股。不过一些分析师认为，鉴于华硕届时仍将持有这两家公司的大量股份，且它目前已有一半以上的收入来自于自有品牌业务，因此即使到那个时候，投资者受到的影响仍然很小。 虽然华硕着眼于高档电脑市场，但也在向激战正酣的低档市场进军，目标定位在发展中国家和地区的低收入消费者。该公司开发出一款售价199美元的笔记本电脑，并命名为Eee PC。这款产品的直接竞争对手是名为“每个儿童一台笔记本电脑”(One Laptop Per Child)的非盈利性协会，后者以向发展中世界的儿童提供廉价笔记本电脑为宗旨。 华硕计划到2008年使Eee PC的出货量达到300万台。不过低档电脑市场的竞争正越来越激烈，像戴尔和联想都推出了面向发展中市场的廉价机型。 |
| WHILE computer maker Acer recently made a splash with a big acquisition, another Taiwanese company is quietly storming the global personal-computer market. Asustek Computer has long operated behind the scenes of the computer world, as the largest producer of motherboards, the main circuit boards of PCs. The company is also a major contract manufacturer, churning out high-end notebook computers for brands like Apple and Sony. Now, Asustek (pronounced uh-SOOSE-teck) is ramping up sales of its own Asus brand computers, planning an eventual split into three separate publicly traded companies -- and sparking new interest from investors. The company has vowed to become one of the world's top five notebook brands in the next three years. Already, the Asus brand sells nearly as many computers as Apple does world-wide and controls about 8% of laptop computer sales in the Asian-Pacific region, according to research firm IDC. Some analysts see parallels between Asustek and Acer, the Taiwan outfit that agreed to acquire U.S.-based Gateway for US$710 million. That deal will let Acer displace Lenovo Group of China as the world's third-largest computer company, behind Hewlett-Packard and Dell. 'Asustek is where Acer was five years ago,' says Kirk Yang, an analyst for Citi Investment Research in Hong Kong. 'It's our top pick among Asian technology companies.' Asustek's shares, which closed yesterday at NT$96.60 (US$2.92), have risen 14% this year. while those of Acer have declined 16%. In Citigroup's view, Asustek stock is trading at about 15 times estimated 2007 earnings, slightly higher than Acer's price/earnings ratio and slightly lower than the P/E of Hon Hai Precision Industry, another leading Taiwanese contract manufacturer. But some analysts say there is room for growth. Mr. Yang of Citi, who has a 'buy' rating on Asustek shares, has a 12-month target price of NT$130. Also having buy ratings on Asustek are UBS Investment Research, with a 12-month target of NT$118, and ABN Amro, with a price target of NT$115. For the second quarter, Asustek reported net profit of NT$6.8 billion (US$ 205 million), which was 136% higher than a year earlier and well above analysts' expectations. Revenue rose 76% to NT$370 billion. Some analysts feel Asustek shares have come up too much. Gokul Hariharan of J.P. Morgan, which has an NT$88 target and an 'underweight' rating, says he thinks the valuation is stretched after the stock's summer rally. He believes the company's PC contract manufacturing business is overvalued. 'They are smaller than their competitors, and it's a very competitive industry,' Mr. Hariharan says of Asustek. 'They are basically trying to compete on price, which will affect profitability.' Also, some fund managers warn that a potential recession in the U.S. could threaten Taiwan's tech sector on the whole. 'Some caution is in order with tech stocks,' says Nidhi Mahurkar, of Pictet Asset Management in London, who says she is still positive on Asustek. 'Dependence on the U.S. has been declining with the rise of emerging markets, but it remains the single largest end market for technology products.' Asustek's share of the U.S. market for notebook computers is tiny, amounting to about 0.2% of total shipments, according to IDC. But the company is still dependent on its overall American revenue, as it makes components such as graphics cards and motherboards that wind up in computers sold in the U.S. The growth of companies like Asustek and Acer reflects the rising clout of Asian players in the global PC business, as consolidation sweeps the industry. Acer's announcement about buying Gateway came two years after Lenovo acquired the PC arm of International Business Machines. One major advantage for the Taiwanese and Chinese players is proximity to the entire supply chain -- the vast majority of the world's laptop PCs, for example, are manufactured by Taiwanese companies at factories in China -- and their close relationships with suppliers, which let them speed deliveries and raise margins. While Asustek benefits from the cost advantages of its Taiwan home base, it isn't a low-cost player. Acer's rise was predicated to a significant degree on rapidly gaining market share by undercutting prices of companies like Dell and H-P. The Asus brand, on the other hand, is focused on sales of high-end computers that compete with brands like Apple and Sony, known for strong design. The company is gradually breaking into the U.S. market by selling in retailers such as Best Buy. While some Asustek products cost less than laptops made by Apple and Sony, they sell for 10% to 20% more than the average notebook. Analysts say Asustek's growth in the notebook market has generated friction with some key customers, who now see the company as a direct competitor. As sales of Asus notebooks have grown, both Apple and Sony have shifted business from Asustek to other Taiwanese contract manufacturers such as Hon Hai Precision and Quanta Computer. Asustek recently announced a restructuring plan to ease tensions with its customers and reduce perceived conflicts of interest between its branded-business and contract-manufacturing arms. The company intends to split into three parts. Asustek will continue to handle the company's brand business, including the production of Asus-brand notebooks, desktops and motherboards. It will place its contract PC manufacturing operations in a new company called Pegatron Technology Corp. Its non-PC component manufacturing will be handled by the new Unihan Technology Corp. If approved by regulators, the restructuring would take effect next year. Acer underwent a similar change several years ago, in an effort to separate its brand business from contract manufacturing. Initially, Asustek's restructuring will have little impact on investors, as Asustek itself will continue to own the vast majority of the two split-off units. But over time, Asustek will reduce those holdings by at least 30% to allow the new companies to have initial public offerings. Even then, some analysts say, the impact on investors will be minimal, as Asustek will have significant stakes in the units, and more than half of Asustek's revenue already comes from the branded business. While Asustek is focused on higher-end PCs, the company is also entering the highly competitive low-cost PC industry, targeting low-income customers in the developing world. Asustek has developed a US$199 notebook called eee PC. The product is in direct competition with One Laptop Per Child, a nonprofit association aimed at providing low-cost notebooks to children in the developing world. Asustek aims to ship three million eee PCs in 2008. But the low-cost PC market is growing increasingly competitive, as companies including Dell and Lenovo launch low-cost models for the developing world. |
