Europe's Rates Should Hold, Japan's Do |
| 继美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)宣布降息0.5个百分点后，由于担心信贷危机对全球经济造成冲击，许多分析师目前都预计欧洲央行(European Central Bank)将在今年余下时间内维持利率不变，而英国央行(Bank of England)的下一步举措则将是减息。 可一个月以前，情况却并非如此。当时市场预计欧洲央行会在年底前将其关键利率由4%提高至4.25%，以抑制欧元区13国因经济发展而引发的通货膨胀压力。 这种看法曾因欧洲央行决策者的一番话而得到了巩固。他们在9月6日召开利率决定会议时表示，失业率水平较低以及货币供应增长强劲等因素意味着通货膨胀风险依然是首要关注的问题。 Fed的降息举措在世界其他地方也引起了反响。日本央行(Bank of Japan)宣布维持现行利率，行长福井俊彦(Toshihiko Fukui)表示，面对全球信贷危机，日本央行眼下可能会顺应大势，维持利率不变。 福井俊彦指出，日本央行的利率决定不会受到其他央行决策的重大影响，但是全球金融市场的动荡局面意味着日本央行今后在决定是否加息时将不得不更加慎重。 至于欧洲央行的态度，贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)驻伦敦的外汇分析师斯蒂夫•拜罗(Steve Barrow)认为该行的官方立场依然倾向于紧缩，不过考虑到欧洲央行从未在Fed减息的情况下仍作出加息决定，因此他们估计欧洲央行现在也不会如此。 对于英国央行的下一步利率举动，经济学家和投资者也正在对他们的预期作出调整。如今许多人都猜测英国央行会在明年年初前（甚至更早）下调其关键利率。此前，虽然英国现行利率已达到5.75%的六年高点，但仍有人预计央行将在今年再次加息。 Joellen Perry |
| In the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point cut in interest rates and angst about the global economic fallout from a credit crunch, many analysts now expect the European Central Bank to hold rates steady the rest of the year and the Bank of England's next move to be a cut. That is a change from a month ago, when expectations were that the ECB by year end would raise its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4% to restrain inflationary pressures stoked by expansion in the 13 countries that share the euro. The view was bolstered by ECB policy makers, who said -- when they met Sept. 6 to set interest rates -- that factors including low unemployment and strong money-supply growth meant inflation risks remained a top concern. The Fed's move reverberated in other parts of the globe. Among other countries that made rate decisions: The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady, and Gov. Toshihiko Fukui indicated the central bank may be resigned to keeping rates on hold for now because of global credit-market woes. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions won't be constrained by what its counterparts in other nations do, but global financial-market jitters mean the central bank will have to be cautious in deciding whether to lift interest rates, Mr. Fukui said. As for the ECB position, 'the ECB still officially has a tightening bias,' said Steve Barrow, a currency analyst with Bear Stearns in London. 'But it's never raised rates while the Fed's been easing, and we don't expect it to start now.' Economists and investors also are changing their predictions about the Bank of England's next move. Many now expect the central bank to cut its key rate from a six-year high of 5.75% by early next year, if not sooner. Earlier, forecasts called for another rate increase this year. |
