Oil prices hit a record high of $97 a barrel on Tuesday, but the next generation of consumers could look back on that price with envy. The dire predictions of a key report on international oil supplies released Wednesday suggest that oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100-a-barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.

　　This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development （OECD）. The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades — crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.

　　"I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action."

　　星期二，油价达到了创纪录的97美元一桶，但是下一代消费者回过头来看看这个价格可能会充满羡慕。星期三公布的一份关于国际石油供应状况的关键性报告做出了可怕的预测，它暗示，随着全球经济面临严重的能源紧缺，不久油价将不可逆转地突破100美元一桶的门槛。

　　这个暗淡的评估来自国际能源署，这个机构位于巴黎，代表经济合作和发展组织中26个富裕的耗油大国。该机构不是以发布危言耸听的警告而出名的，政策专家一致认为，它的“世界能源展望”是全球能源供应的可靠的风向标。国际能源署2007年的报告一改传统的平淡而谨慎的风格，号召各国政府在能源政策上做出迅速和大胆的决定，否则在20年中将面临大规模的环境和能源供应危机，这些危机和短缺可能引发严重的全球性冲突。

　　国际能源署的首席经济师法迪·比洛尔本周告诉《时代》杂志：“我很抱歉这样说，但是我们真的是在步入糟糕的岁月。制定了很多目标，但是几乎没有实现的。谈论得很多，但是没有行动。”