译文:英国11月份通货膨胀稳定
看到11月份稳定的通货膨胀率，经济学家为英国每年通货膨胀率感到惊讶，从某种程度上的供过于求，使得人们对将来英国银行利率政策的选择担心。

星期二，依据国家统计局办公室公布的数据显示，英国11月份的年通货膨胀率是2.1%，这个数字比经济学家们预期的2.2%略微低了一点。

贝尔史登公司(BearStearns)首席欧洲经济学家大卫·布朗如此评说：“英国11月的通货膨胀比预期的要好。”

依据统计部门的数据，服装、家具和家庭开支，尤其是降低然气价格抵消了食品、乙醇和交通费用上涨。

最近，通货膨胀问题也被提上了议事日程，因为它在利率政策制定上起很大作用。

在上周五美国的通货膨胀率比预期的要高，星期一，世界股票市场大跌，美联储还不确定美国是否将进一步降低利率。
 
但是，英国的通货膨胀率比预期要好，这意味着英国银行将进一步降低利率以支撑经济增长。

英国银行将在12月初开始降低利率，主要利率将降低0.25个百分点到5.5%，许多不太充分的证据显示消费者信心下降，服务行业增长。

这是自2005年8月以来首次降息。自从2006年8月以来，英国曾连续5次加息。

央行说：“尽管英国产能在过去的两年里大幅增长，但是现在有降低迹象。”

一些人认为再次降息能延缓经济衰退。
 
布朗在贝尔史登说：“我们期望英国的利率最低在4.50%，甚至有可能降低到4.0%，以此来延缓英国明年的经济衰退。

星期一，Dresdner Kleinwort的经济师说，他们认为明年英国将有50%的可能遭遇经济衰退。主要在于房地产市场的恶化，《每日电讯》也报道说有进一步的消息表明，英国银行将在周三考虑可行的利率政策。这是在中央银行公布了最近利率政策会议的备忘录以后。

公布通货膨胀率以后，英镑对美元的比率下降了0.4%到，英镑对美元的比率为1：2.0126

然而，伦敦股市上涨了。参见《伦敦市场报》

10月份，商品零售价格指数由4.2%上升到4.3%。商品零售价格指数从3.1%上升到3.2%，抵消了抵押贷款的利息支付。



原文:U.K. inflation holds steady in November
U.K. annual inflation surprised economists by holding steady in November, to some extent calming fears about the Bank of England's options for future interest-rate policy.

The annual rate of inflation stayed at 2.1% in November, according to data released Tuesday by the Office of National Statistics. The figure was slightly better than a rise to 2.2% that economists had been expecting.

"November's U.K. inflation came through a little better than expected," said David Brown, chief European economist, fixed income, at Bear Stearns.

A rise in food, alcohol and transport costs was offset by lower prices for clothes, furniture, and household bills, in particular lower gas bills, according to the statistics agency.

Inflation has been on the agenda recently because of the role it plays in interest rate policy.

Stocks fell around the world on Monday after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures on Friday placed further rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve bank in doubt.

But the lower-than-expected U.K. inflation reading means the Bank of England should still be able to cut interest rates in the future to shore up economic growth.

The Bank of England started to reduce interest rates in early December, moving its key rate down by a quarter percentage point to 5.5%, after a raft of weak data showed a sharp slowdown in consumer confidence and services-sector growth.
The rate cut was the first since August 2005 and comes after five increases since August 2006.

"Although output in the United Kingdom has expanded at a brisk pace for the past two years, there are now signs that growth has begun to slow," the central bank said.

Some believe that the bank will need to cut rates again to stave off a recession.

"We expect U.K. rates will need to go down to a minimum of 4.50% and possibly even as low as 4.0% to steer the U.K. economy away from recession next year," said Brown at Bear Stearns.

On Monday, economists at Dresdner Kleinwort said that they believe there is a 50-50 chance of a recession in the U.K. next year, mostly due to a deteriorating housing market, the Telegraph newspaper reported.

Some further clues on the Bank of England's thinking on rate policy will be available Wednesday, when the central bank puts out the minutes of its latest monetary policy committee meeting.

Sterling traded down 0.4% to $2.0126 against the dollar after the release of the inflation data, while London stocks moved higher. See London Markets.

The retail price index rose to 4.3%, from 4.2% in October. Stripping out mortgage interest payments, the RPI inched up to 3.2%, from 3.1%.