西方矿业企业与新兴市场生产商之间的竞争越来越激烈,反映出高质量矿业资产日益稀缺。现有的矿正趋于枯竭,而过去十年几乎没有发现什么新的大型矿区。
The growing competition between western mining companies and emerging market producers reflects the fact that high-quality mining assets are increasingly scarce. Established mines are reaching the end of their lives and few new major mineral discoveries have been made in the last decade.
90年代末上一次大宗商品价格低迷时期,大型矿业企业削减勘探预算,数百家小型勘探商破产。如今该行业开始重新投资,但要找到新的矿藏需要数年,而使其投产可能要花十年以上,因此,此前削减勘探预算造成的影响依然存在。
During the last downturn in commodities prices, in the late 1990s, large mining companies slashed exploration budgets and hundreds of smaller explorers went bust. The industry is now investing again but it takes years to find new deposits and sometimes more than a decade to bring them into production, so the effects of the previous cutbacks are still being felt.
尽管大型矿商正在推进的有机增长项目颇多,但要发挥这些项目的潜能仍需要时间。收购现有的矿藏,则能使企业立即利用价格高企的大好时机。
Although the large miners have impressive pipelines of organic growth projects, these will take time to fulfil their potential. Buying existing mines enables companies to cash in on high prices immediately.
但待售的资产越来越少。全球许多开采中的矿由国有企业或家族企业控制,这使大型上市矿业集团在收购时面临的选择更少了。一位伦敦矿业分析师表示:"可以收购的大型一流资产很有限,用一只手就能数清。"
But the number of assets up for sale are dwindling. Many of the mines in production around the world are controlled by state- or family-owned companies, giving the big listed mining groups less choice in what they can acquire. "The number of world-class, large-scale assets that can be bought are finite, you could count them on the fingers of one hand," said one London-based mining analyst.
这意味着收购高品质资产的价格将会很高,力拓对加拿大铝业的高昂收购报价,可能会变得更加常见。Frontier Strategy Group的戈尔巴斯基表示,矿业企业高管们别无选择。"这些企业的收购价格看上去的确很高。然而,企业增长乏力的风险和成本同样巨大。你要么为企业成长而溢价收购,要么成为被收购的目标。"
This means the price of securing quality assets will be high, and the kind of lofty price tag seen in Rio's bid for Alcan could become more commonplace. Mr Gorbansky at Frontier Strategy Group says mining executives have no alternative. "Companies do look expensive. However, the risk and cost of not being able to grow your business, which is the alternative, is cataclysmic. You either pay a premium to grow, or you become a target."
