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Brexit-Nostalgia and dreams VS Economic reality

英国脱欧 - 乡愁与梦 VS 经济现实

主讲嘉宾:Richard Tudway

practicing economist andeconomic advisor

visiting professor at several international businesses schools


  Professor Richard Tudway gave us a brilliant speech about Brexit-nostalgia and dreams versus economicreality in 22nd Nov. The impact of the global financial crisis and the illusion of British economic strength. In the period 2007-2016 EU growth weakened following Wall Street financial crisis. The conservative government has relied on austerity in a bid to restore economic stabilization. Brexit will change nothing in terms of austerity relief. British growth has weakened whilst the EU and the Euro zone are recovering strongly.

  11月22日, Richard Tudway 教授给我们带来了一场精彩的讲座,主题为:英国退欧- 乡愁梦想 VS 经济现实的主题演讲。即使受到全球金融危机的影响,英国依旧对英国经济充满乐观。虽然受华尔街金融危机影响,2007年-2016年欧洲经济持续走弱,但保守党依靠紧缩政策维持了经济稳定,事实上英国的经济增长呈现弱势,同时欧盟和欧元区正在强势复苏。

  Brexit will weaken growth still further and worsen the state of Britain's public finances. Post-Brexit economice renaissance is anothergrand delusion. The exposure of the British economy interms of fundamentals. Inaccurate representations of Brexit statistics on payments to and from the EU have been used to promote a fantasy thatmore will be available to support British public services once Britain leaves. These EU claw-back payment take the form of support grants for agricultural, regional, social and economic development , university research and other private sector support.


  The Brexiteers promise – a land of milk and honey. The British economy - unbalanced and unsustainable. Britain unshackled from budget and singlemarket obligations, will grow and prosper. The worsening balance of trade with the EU and the world will magically disappear without explanation. Britain's trade deficit is a reflection of Britain's relative weakness in terms of productivity and comparative advantage. Britain's great exporting industries havebeen destroyed. In 2016 the country accounted for 2.5% of global trade comparedwith 25% in 1950.

  支持退欧者的承诺 - 一个富饶富足的乐园 。英国经济已经是不平衡的,英国将不再受到预算和区域市场保护政策影响,将会开始成长和繁荣,和欧盟之间的贸易合作也会变得越来越糟糕,曾经的合作顷刻间就戛然而止,英国的贸易赤字就是英国在生产力和竞争优势上逐渐衰退的表现。2016年在全球出口中占比2.5% 而在1950年时占比25%,表明英国最大的出口行业已经被摧毁。

  Where does the balance of the argument realistically lie?

  Britain is far better off "IN" and "OUT".


  英国“IN”会比 “OUT”更繁荣。

  The lesson of history are important 1974 the Conservtive Prime Minister Edward Health sough membership of the EU after earlier re-buffs. The recent dispute between Boeing(American) and Bombardier (Canadian) both of which have manufacturing subsidiaries in Britain is a portend of likely future difficulties if Britain leavesthe EU. Economic growth will weaken, inflation andinterest rates will rise- along with unemployment – with investment falling. The steady decline of Britain’s domestic industrial base had stimulated a spectacular inflow of FDI (foreign directinvestment). Now it’s the end of the FDI bonanza. Significantly Airbus Industrie, a European aerospace company , a major force in the global civil aircraft industry with several subsidiary plants in the UK will almost certainly migrate back to the EU in the event of Brexit. Elsewhere Siemens (German), Hitachi (Japan) and Bombardier (Canada) are constructors of railway units and related infrastructure along with aircraft wings will be adversely impacted if supplychains are adversely impacted.

  回顾历史,1974年保守党首相 EdwardHealth曾寻求欧盟成员国的一席之地。最近在Boeing (美国)和 Bombardier (加拿大)公司之间发生一场争论,因为两家公司在英国都有加工子公司,这体现了英国脱欧在未来会带来的困难,例如经济增长将会放缓,通胀和利率将会走高,随之而来的是高失业率和低投资率。英国国内产业基础的直线下滑曾经吸引了外资的流入,而现在到了外资红利终结的时期。例如,大型的航空行业,一家欧洲的航天工业公司,主要做全球民用机市场,有几个辅助的飞机在英国,也将全部调回欧洲基于脱欧的影响。另外西门子 (德国)日立(日本)和 Bombardier (加拿大) 作为铁路联合搭建商,负责相关基础设施将会因机翼部件的供应链问题受到牵连。

  Why have these businesses migrated to Britain? The EU single market connection is key. First there are important gaps in theBritish market which can easily be exploited because local competition is notstrong. Second British owners and investors have been prepared to sell out. Immigrationof EU citizens into Britain is viewed as a major socio political concern.


  The pervasive myth of sovereignty


  By taking back control the man in the street is promised that Brexit will return sovereignty to the British people. Once again laws will be made by the British parliament implying that laws are passedin the EU and forced upon the helpless, unwilling British people. The scale of internationalization of the British economy- means that a very large proportion of British industrial activity is produced by entities which are domiciled and controlledfrom outside Britain. As British registered subsidiaries they are subject to British corporate and commercial law but the locus of their ownership and power lies elsewhere.


  Trade deals, the EU and the Britain – the facts Definitely better in the EU than out

  显而易见,在欧盟比脱欧更好- 欧盟和英国之间的贸易协定

  British businesses benefit from direct access to the single EU market of 500 million consumers-largest in value in the world. The EU is top trading partner for 80 countries compared with 20 for theus. Brexiteers argue that the UK would be able to significantly increase accessto global markets with no explanation as to how this will be achieved.


  What of the EU and its future- a final thought the vision of a unified Europe is the right vision.


  The EU and the Euro area are far from perfect as man-made institutions. But any honest assessment must recognize thatthe EU reflects a fundamental realism about how best the European region andits people can best manage the complex economic, social and political global environment in which it operates. It has however brought greater economic and politicalbenefits to many millions of EU citizens. Time for Britain to wake up to the realityof its place in the world. It has a far more important role in strengtheningthe EU from within. Time for Britiain to invest its talent and focus its energyon helping to build a better and more secure place for all citizens of the EU.


  Professor Richard Tudway also raise major unresolved Brexit issues and the major challenges to us. Like the heavy financial implications of divorcefrom the EU.Rights of all EU Citizens in Britain andhow these will be honored.

  Richard Tudway 教授也指出了退欧后悬而未决的问题,及退欧后所带来的挑战。例如,退欧后所带来的承重的财务负担。欧盟公民在英国的权利如何在后续被尊重等。