During the second half of the 20th century，the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey．Robert McNamara，president of the World Bank in the l970s，compared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war．Now that worry has evaporated，and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear：the onset of demographic decline．examda.com
　　The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar，though not perhaps the scale of it：Russia’s population is expected to fall by 22％between 2005 and 2050，Ukraine’s by a staggerin9 43％．①Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world：Japan has started to shrink and others，such as Italy and Germany，will soon follow．Even China’s population will be declining by the early 2030s，according to the UN，which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries．②
　　Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline．At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors：pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism．But，in the main，demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity．In Japan，for instance，birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2．1 children per woman in the mid-1970s and have been particularly low in the past l5 years．examda.com
　　But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline，surely it must be a cause?In a crude sense，yes．As populations shrink，GDP growth will slow．Some economies may even start to shrink，t00．The result will be a lOSS of economic influence．examda.com
　　Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great-power status．The bigger the economy，the bigger the military，the greater the geopolitical clout： annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America il3．the l 940s as part of its war effort．③Companies worry，t00：they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinkin9．People should not mind， though．What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person．
　　People love to worry--maybe it’s a symptom of ageing populations--but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point．The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate．Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality．Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality．Women’s control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good--as is the average person’S enjoyment，in rich countries，of ten more years of life than they had in 1960．④Politicians may fear the decline of their nations’economic power。but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age．[478 words]
　　1．A shrinking population may result in______
　　A．economic success,examda.com
　　B．higher GDP growth
　　C．lower geopolitical influence
　　D．the obvious increase of efficiency
　　2．The second paragraph is written to ______．
　　A．illustrate the big demographic bogey
　　B．justify the comparison made by Robert McNamara
　　C．exemplify the potential decline of population
　　D．show the remarkable scale of demographic decline
　　3．The author believes that______may not contribute to demographic decline．
　　A．economic recession,examda.com
　　B．economic prosperity
　　C．the low fertility
　　D．the low mortality
　　4．______should welcome the new trend of population change?
　　A．Most governments
　　B．Numerous politicians
　　C．Few women
　　D．Average people
　　5．This passage is mainly about______．
　　A．population explosion
　　B．population shrinking
　　C．population pressures
　　D．the threat of population

难句透析　
　　①The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar，though not perhaps the scale of it：Russia’s population is  expected to fall by 22％between 2005 and 2050，Ukraine’s by a staggerin9 43％．examda.com
　　【结构】本句中，代词“it”指“shrinkage”。“not perhaps the scale of it”相当于“the scale of it is perhaps not famil  ia，。
　　【释义】对俄罗斯和东欧人口的减少，人们都熟悉，不过对人口减少的程度，可能就不那么熟悉了。预计从2005  年到2050年俄罗斯的人口减少22％，乌克兰的人口减少43％。
　　②Even China，s population will be declining by the early 2030s，according to the UN，[which projects(that by  2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries)]．examda.com